All the Climate Guys think La Niña is in Play

La Niña is a weather phenomenon that occurs as the waters in the Pacific Ocean cool down significantly. This creates worldwide weather pattern changes. Here in the ‘Couv’ it can often spell cooler pacific storm cycles and more than average moisture. Generally Pacific Northwest ski resorts are delighted with La Niña as it tends to give the snow pack a big fat boost. The opposite condition is known as El Niño when the ocean waters warm up.

Cooler ocean temps and a northerly flow of the jet stream are staples of the La Niña condition and both of those spell strong snowfall here in Clark County, at least at the typically snowy elevations above 1000 feet.

Down here in the valleys it can go either way. if the models hold, and there is near unanimous model data, we will likely have wetter than average winter and probably a few bouts of fluffy white precipitation down low. Good thing I bought that new Jeep, right? 😉

pactempsnowI have compiled a chart of measured snowfall at my location in East Vancouver since 2002. This is anecdotal and frankly inconclusive. But the two winters with more than 20 inches of snow were both during “normal” ocean conditions. All three La Niña winters delivered more than 6 inches of snow and two were above my annual average. Every single El Niño save for the winter of 06-07 were well below average for snowfall at my house. The winter of 06-07 had a weak El Niño and all of the snow fell in a one week period where a super cold chill set in and then a storm came in over the top of dense cold air.

So the snow-cast for this winter? Great skiing up at the resorts and a couple of snowy incidents down low, more than the weak little dustings we have had the last two winters. I figure this season, I’ll measure close to the 15 year average shown on the chart.

Ah the ‘Couv’ life; it is good and this year it might be cold too 🙂

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